.Here is some key data to pay attention to, especially if you are still very long stocks and believe the last couple of weeks is just another of many more buying opportunities to come. As well, in this post we will look at some ideas which may look like a screaming buy in 2 years time. (One needs to be patient for the big big money move!)

First of all, recent reports out of Asia confirm that many people are paying (and receiving) with credit, IOUs and the like, just to keep afloat. Trump's tariffs are having the expected effect curtailing growth in the Asian market. This has killed bellwether stocks such as Samsung. At the same time, we see East Europe is supplying more of what China once offered far more cheaply. No doubt, a trade war is in effect and the result of such trade wars lead to currency debasement.

All this is good (slash that) great for the gold market and eventually will be for high yielding stocks. So far, many of these high yielding stocks have retraced significantly with the general market. Ditto for energy stocks. For those who took advantage of our advice on going long gold and platinum 2 months ago, we would suggest to continue to buy on retracements; this bull trend is far from over. A global governments race to zero interest rates a storm is brewing. 

We would also suggest that you consider shorting high yield debt and instead go long certain high yielding equities, such as pipeline partnerships (AMLP), as well as select oil stocks. We realize this last idea is very much a contrarian trade, but how often is it that you find oil companies trading at about 4 times cash flow (half of what is typical), below book value, providing good dividends and which are still profitable? If WTI stays below the $50 handle, which it no doubt will if trade conditions deteriorate, producers will cut back on production. Currently, there is a glut of production, so it is only a matter of time before the pendulum swings back. Right now though, things are looking pretty cheap. 

Shorting stocks is always a bit tricky, especially when lousy companies with little or no prospect of ever turning a profit continue to attract capital. A classic case would be UBER which today reported a loss of over 5 billion on revenues of slightly more than 3 billion. Yes, that's correct. These numbers make no sense even if one considers the majority of that loss was due to incentives given to original stakeholders. Imagine you're a 7 year old who opens a lemonade stand and you sell it for 30 cents a glass, while it costs you 50 cents to make. Really, it's not much different from that. And if your argument is that you are trying to capture market share with your brand and your app, think again. The fact that this company and others like it are even able to attract capital is absurd in historical context. Here is a stock with no moat around it,  no potential for any significant profit margins, and a lousy corporate governance. There is far more money than brains involved in the market now, perhaps because it's not real money, it's just debt. All this is very reminiscent of 1999. Hold onto your hats. One can't predict the future of course, but we would suggest staying nimble, stay in gold and cash, and wait for greater opportunities ahead. Remember, nobody is forcing you to make a trade. Buy when there is blood in the streets!

Gold responds to the opportunity cost of money, more than anything. When the cost of holding gold is minimal, as it is now, this is what you should expect. It would be strange to see these yields bounce back quickly. If one considers that the global economy is not in a recession and Central Banks are talking lower rates, then this becomes a serious concern. 

What tools will Central Banks have at their disposal if we do enter a recession, or if geopolitical risk and tariffs begin to affect the economy significantly? It seems the market is pricing all that in right now, in which case we might be due for a relief rally (or retracement on bonds and gold). Longer term however, it is clear the market has little confidence in either the Euro or The USD, which becomes a strong case for holding gold.

Will the USD remain weak over the next year? That is far more difficult to call. Gold has had a good run the past few weeks, but it's come too far too fast. At the same time, the critical level of previous resistance at $1350 USD has been breached. Any move back to or near that level should be considered an opportunity to go long again. 

First a little background: in the wake of the financial crisis in 2008-2009, the ECB had been compelled to cut interest rates to negative; they currently sit at -0.4 %. The intent of negative rates is to encourage institutions to lend money rather than park it at the ECB. If euro banks aren’t lending, then they are forced to pay the ECB to sit on their cash, or take greater risks in their lending practices. This has been hurting EU bank profits for quite some time, as the chart below indicates. 
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Well, some relief may be on the way for EU banks, but this doesn’t necessarily bode well for anyone who is long the EURO. ​